Match Predictions Round 2

Another week of rugby, another round of predictions – with average certainty hovering at around 75%, another week of 9/12 correct calls would feel like a reasonable result.

Pro 12

Home Team		Draw		Away Team
Edinburgh	59%	8%	33%	Connacht
Dragons	19%	3%	78%	Ospreys
Ulster	99%	0%	1%	Zebre
Benetton Treviso	12%	5%	84%	Munster
Leinster	90%	2%	8%	Scarlets
Cardiff Blues	25%	6%	68%	Glasgow

The weekend kicks off with four Friday night games. Treviso host Munster – despite Munster having a pretty poor record away against the Italians, and despite a pretty poor showing against Edinburgh, the model is predicting an 84% chance of a Munster win. Ulster are unsurprisingly 99% favourites to beat Zebre at home, while Edinburgh are expected to beat Connacht at home. Following Ospreys strong showing against Treviso last week, they are expected to claim an away win against the Dragons this evening.

Meanwhile on Saturday, Leinster are 90% favourites to take Scarlets at home, while Glasgow are expected to beat Cardiff away from home.

Premiership

Home Team		Draw		Away Team
Harlequins	37%	4%	59%	Saracens
Gloucester Rugby	81%	3%	17%	Sale Sharks
Bath Rugby	91%	2%	8%	London Welsh
Exeter Chiefs	30%	3%	67%	Leicester Tigers
Newcastle Falcons	45%	4%	51%	London Irish
London Wasps	18%	2%	80%	Northampton Saints

The Premiership this week has just one Friday game, Harlequins playing host to Saracens, in what looks like a pretty tight game – the model still predicts Saracens to edge out a strong Harlequins side. Of the three games on Saturday, Gloucester and Bath are expected to be reasonably comfortable victors over Sale Sharks and London Welsh, while Leicester are predicted to get an away win in Exeter despite the latter’s thumping of London Welsh last week.

The hardest game of the weekend to call is between Newcastle Falcons and London Irish, though the Exiles are predicted to edge it. Finally, Northampton are strong favourites to get an away win against Wasps.

Bets

Hoping to atone for my losses last week, Ospreys seem like a reasonably good £3 bet to beat Dragons at 1.57, while Munster at 1.25 seems reasonable for £1 as well, despite their letting me down last week. Possibly more to add in the morning when more odds are available!

That’s it for now – will post again during the week on some corrections I’m planning for the model (boosting the importance of recent matches and changing how players are rated) and to see how I’m doing so far.