Apologies for the delay in getting this one posted. Staying up all night watching Scottish referendum coverage means that it’s a little more rushed than usual!
Pro 12
Home Win |
Draw |
Away Win |
||
| Connacht | 16% | 3% | 81% | Leinster |
| Cardiff Blues | 15% | 4% | 81% | Ulster |
| Munster | 98% | 0% | 1% | Zebre |
| Ospreys | 91% | 2% | 7% | Edinburgh |
| Scarlets | 88% | 2% | 10% | Benetton Treviso |
| Dragons | 32% | 5% | 63% | Glasgow |
The Pro 12 this week appears to be a little more predictable than usual (famous last words), with reasonably straightforward victories predicted across the board. While Leinster often slip up in the Sportsground, the model reckons they’re 81% favourites to put an end to Connacht’s perfect start to the season, while Ulster are similarly favourites to beat a Cardiff side that ended up folding to Glasgow last week. Unsurprisingly Munster are heavily favoured to beat Zebre at home (but then they were against Edinburgh too!), while Ospreys and Scarlets are expected to comfortably beat Edinburgh and Treviso.
The only difficult one of the weekend according to the model is Dragons home to Glasgow, but the model still thinks it will be a Scottish win (despite its peculiar anti-Glasgow bias).
With an average certainty of 84% for the predicted winner, I would be hoping for five out of six here.
Premiership
Home Win |
Draw |
Away Win |
||
| Gloucester Rugby | 72% | 3% | 25% | Exeter Chiefs |
| Sale Sharks | 77% | 3% | 20% | London Welsh |
| Harlequins | 89% | 1% | 10% | London Wasps |
| London Irish | 25% | 5% | 70% | Saracens |
| Bath Rugby | 35% | 3% | 62% | Leicester Tigers |
| Newcastle Falcons | 12% | 3% | 85% | Northampton Saints |
The English Premiership is a bit harder to call this weekend, though reasonably straightforward victories for Harlequins and Saints are expected against Wasps and Newcastle. Saracens are expected to beat London Irish away from home and Leicester are expected to do the same to Bath, while home wins are predicted for Gloucester and Sale.
Some of these games look an awful lot harder to call, instinctively. It will be interesting to see how the weekend pans out!
Bets
Unsurprisingly, I may stick a bit to the Pro 12 this weekend, cautious better as I am. Ulster at 1.36 seems like it’s worth £2, as is Leinster at 1.3 for another pound. Ospreys still feel like a good bet at 1.22, so £1 there. Harlequins at 1.44 looks good though, despite the hockeying they got last week, so one more pound on the Premiership.
I’m off to get some sleep.