Another weekend of 75% correct predictions is starting to look like a habit. As expected, the Pro 12 was a bit easier to call, with 5/6 correct – the only exception being Leinster’s customary slip up in the Sportsground. The Premiership saw Exeter edge out Gloucester in a tight game, while Bath surprised everyone by thumping Leicester 45-0.
Upsets for strongly favoured Leinster and Leicester have had an impact on how the Crystal Egg expects the tables to finish for both competitions. Results of simulations of the league are now predicting:
| 1 | Leinster | 76 |
| 2 | Ulster | 72 |
| 3 | Ospreys | 70 |
| 4 | Glasgow | 68 |
| 5 | Munster | 67 |
| 6 | Scarlets | 56 |
| 7 | Cardiff Blues | 45 |
| 8 | Connacht | 45 |
| 9 | Edinburgh | 41 |
| 10 | Dragons | 35 |
| 11 | Benetton Treviso | 32 |
| 12 | Zebre | 21 |
| 1 | Saracens | 80 |
| 2 | Northampton Saints | 72 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers | 70 |
| 4 | Bath Rugby | 63 |
| 5 | Harlequins | 61 |
| 6 | Exeter Chiefs | 55 |
| 7 | London Wasps | 51 |
| 8 | London Irish | 48 |
| 9 | Gloucester Rugby | 47 |
| 10 | Sale Sharks | 43 |
| 11 | Newcastle Falcons | 25 |
| 12 | London Welsh | 23 |
In the Premiership, Saracens are even more favoured to top the league than at the start of the season (73% as opposed to 56%) after a good run, and the poor performance of Leicester, previously seen as their nearest rivals for first place (this honour now goes to Northampton). Bath meanwhile have slipped past Harlequins into the fourth play-off spot, though it will be interesting to see if they can keep anywhere near this form up for the rest of the season. The model now give them a 54% chance of qualifying for the semi-finals at least.
Predicted Premiership Table
Conversely, Leinster’s dreary loss to Connacht combined with fairly mediocre results at the start of the season has seen their chance of topping the table drop significantly. While they are still favourites, they have dropped to 44%, down from 64% at the start of the season. Glasgow’s strong start to the season has also finally propelled them past Munster, who drop down to an expected fifth place, despite a solid showing against Zebre. Glasgow now have a 68% chance of qualifying for the business end of the season and a 9% chance of topping the table.
Predicted Pro 12 Outcomes
On the betting front, things are going reasonably well! With three out of four bets paying off (getting hit by the Connacht – Leinster upset, but dodging the Bath – Leicester one), I’m up to a £1.56 gain – about 9% of total bets of £18 and a 16% increase on my original stake of £10.