Round 4 Predictions

Another short post this weekend from a trip home to Cork.

Pro 12

Home Win		Draw		Away Win
Edinburgh	54%	5%	42%	Scarlets
Glasgow	90%	3%	7%	Connacht
Leinster	95%	1%	4%	Cardiff Blues
Zebre	4%	1%	95%	Ulster
Munster	62%	3%	35%	Ospreys
Dragons	81%	3%	16%	Benetton Treviso

5 out of 6 home wins predicted for the Pro 12 this weekend, with Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leinster, Munster and Dragons all expected to beat opposition at home, with only Ulster predicted to deliver a win on the road, albeit an emphatic one!

Premiership

Home Win		Draw		Away Win
London Welsh	20%	5%	75%	Gloucester Rugby
Leicester Tigers	77%	2%	20%	London Irish
Saracens	92%	1%	6%	Sale Sharks
Exeter Chiefs	55%	3%	42%	Harlequins
London Wasps	77%	2%	21%	Newcastle Falcons
Northampton Saints	71%	3%	25%	Bath Rugby

Again, 5 of 6 home wins expected in the English Premiership – Leicester expected to make up for last weeks loss with a win over London Irish, Saracens strongly favoured at home to Sharks, and Exeter, Wasps and Saints also predicted to win.

Bets

For a change, this week the model seems to predict the underdogs as undervalued more often. With that in mind, 50p  on Ospreys seems like a good bet, much as it pains me to bet against Munster. More safely, I’ll also put £3 on Ulster to beat Zebre away, and £2 on Sarries. 

A return to more in depth posts next week!