Oof. Not a great weekend, but could have been worse! With four upsets on the first two days, things were looking a little bit hairy, but in the end a solid 8 from 12 correct predictions means the Crystal Egg is back to its average of 75% correct calls for the season. In betting terms, I’ve gone from a reasonable profit to a slight loss overall, thanks to Ulster’s poor performance in Italy losing me £3 I was sure was safe. Losing a prop in the first few minutes of a game is tough, but Ulster will still be disappointed to have lost what they must have thought was a sure win.
(As an aside, for new readers and those who need a reminder, an introductory blog post about the Crystal Egg model can be found here, along with full details of how the system works here).
Ulster’s loss, Munster’s continuing poor season and Ospreys’ run of wins have shaken up how the model sees the final table panning out. At the top, Leinster are looking a lot less secure than at the start of the season, with only a 49% chance of finishing top of the table, while Ospreys have leaped into a predicted second place, ahead of a continually strengthening Glasgow. On the other hand, Ulster and Munster, previously expected in second and third place each are now predicted to be duking it out for the last play-off place come the end of the season, with Munster now expected to be only in with a 50% chance of qualifying for the semis.
At the other end of the scale, Connacht’s good start to the season hasn’t quite translated them through into the European placings, expected as they are to battle it out for seventh place with Cardiff. Zebre’s win over Ulster hasn’t moved them off another expected last place finish, but it has moved them from 81% favourites to 63% to come last.
| 1 | Leinster | 76 |
| 2 | Ospreys | 72 |
| 3 | Glasgow | 70 |
| 4 | Ulster | 68 |
| 5 | Munster | 64 |
| 6 | Scarlets | 55 |
| 7 | Cardiff Blues | 45 |
| 8 | Connacht | 45 |
| 9 | Edinburgh | 41 |
| 10 | Dragons | 38 |
| 11 | Benetton Treviso | 30 |
| 12 | Zebre | 25 |
Predicted Pro 12 Placings
In the Premiership, meanwhile, things are going much more according to the Crystal Egg’s early season predictions, with Saracens the runaway favourites to top the table already at this early stage. Harlequins continue to slide down the table following a predictable loss to Exeter, who are now chasing their heels for a fifth place finish. Conor O’Shea’s side has had such a weak start to the season that they are now only given a 29% chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
London Irish may have had only their second win at Welford Road since 1922, but it doesn’t seem to have done much for either team’s expected finish. Indeed, the expected final table is in exactly the same order as last week, albeit that everything has narrowed a little bit. Everything, that is, except Saracens topping the table again…
Of course, as with any predictions, it’s important to remember that these can only predict the “known unknowns”. It is quite possible that a run of good form, a series of injuries, a change in personnel, or a just God intervening in the world to destroy Sarries, could well change these at any time. We can live in hope.
| 1 | Saracens | 81 |
| 2 | Northampton Saints | 73 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers | 66 |
| 4 | Bath Rugby | 63 |
| 5 | Harlequins | 59 |
| 6 | Exeter Chiefs | 58 |
| 7 | London Wasps | 52 |
| 8 | London Irish | 52 |
| 9 | Gloucester Rugby | 50 |
| 10 | Sale Sharks | 42 |
| 11 | Newcastle Falcons | 25 |
| 12 | London Welsh | 18 |
Predicted Premiership Placings