Things are starting to heat up in both leagues, with teams such as Harlequins and Munster already having to pick up their game if they expect to be challenging for the playoffs. Of the two, Munster have a vastly bigger task facing them week – a trip to the Aviva rather than a home game against London Welsh. Here’s a quick roundup of this weekend’s games:
Pro 12
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Leinster | 77% | 2% | 21% | Munster |
| Benetton Treviso | 11% | 5% | 84% | Glasgow |
| Scarlets | 76% | 3% | 22% | Dragons |
| Connacht | 61% | 4% | 35% | Cardiff Blues |
| Ulster | 95% | 2% | 4% | Edinburgh |
| Zebre | 4% | 2% | 94% | Ospreys |
Although the big game of previous seasons, the fixture has lost a lot of its buzz in recent years, and you don’t have to look far to see why, with Leinster 77% favourites to take a scalp against a Munster side struggling for form. Glasgow are strong favourites to take an away win in Italy, as are Ospreys facing Zebre. Connacht are expected to continue a strong start to the season with a win over Cardiff, while Scarlets should see off the Dragons at home in a Welsh derby. Finally, Ulster are heavy favourites to beat Edinburgh at home and will be hoping not to throw away a second gimme.
Premiership
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Harlequins | 97% | 1% | 2% | London Welsh |
| London Irish | 28% | 5% | 67% | Northampton Saints |
| Gloucester Rugby | 56% | 2% | 41% | Leicester Tigers |
| Sale Sharks | 75% | 2% | 23% | London Wasps |
| Newcastle Falcons | 22% | 3% | 75% | Exeter Chiefs |
| Bath Rugby | 38% | 2% | 59% | Saracens |
In the Aviva Premiership meanwhile, we have what I think is this season’s first example of the Crystal Egg model disagreeing with the bookies! While I have Gloucester on 56% to win, Paddy Power’s 2.2 odds effectively give them just a 45% chance. As mentioned earlier, Harlequins will be very strong favourites at home to London Welsh, while Saints are expected to rain on London Irish’s parade after tehir famous away win last week. Exeter, shaping up as a strong team this year, are expected to beat Newcastle Falcons, while Sale should record a home win against Wasps (soon to be Coventry Wasps?). Finally, Bath look set to provide the first stern challenge to Sarries of the season, though the model is still predicting an away win.
Bets
It would be remiss of me not to back my model against the bookies, so I’ve obviously put a pound on Gloucester. It would be amazing if Zebre could pull off two shocking wins in a row against top quality opposition, so I’ve also put three pounds on Ospreys to continue their winning streak. This is rounded off with a pound each on Sale and Ulster.