Another short post with predictions and bets for the last weekend of domestic rugby before the I Can’t Believe It’s Not The Heineken Cup (sponsored by Heineken).
Home win |
Draw |
Away Win |
||
| Zebre | 2% | 1% | 97% | Leinster |
| Munster | 86% | 2% | 12% | Scarlets |
| Benetton Treviso | 62% | 9% | 29% | Connacht |
| Ulster | 77% | 3% | 19% | Glasgow |
| Ospreys | 88% | 2% | 10% | Cardiff Blues |
| Edinburgh | 58% | 5% | 36% | Dragons |
The Pro 12 looks set to be home-win heavy this weekend, with Munster, Treviso, Ulster, Ospreys and Edinburgh all expected to fend off visitors (though the bookies seem to disagree with me about Treviso, and expect Connacht to pull off an away win – not too surprising given the gap between the two teams’ recent form). Leinster provide the only opportunity for an away win in an aim to atone for their relatively poor start to the season.
Home win |
Draw |
Away Win |
||
| Saracens | 85% | 2% | 13% | Gloucester Rugby |
| Leicester Tigers | 59% | 2% | 39% | Harlequins |
| London Wasps | 21% | 1% | 78% | Bath Rugby |
| Exeter Chiefs | 70% | 3% | 27% | London Irish |
| Northampton Saints | 88% | 2% | 10% | Sale Sharks |
| London Welsh | 49% | 5% | 46% | Newcastle Falcons |
The Premiership is similarly expected to be dominated by home wins by Saracens, Leicester, Exeter, Northampton and even London Welsh in a lowdown showdown with fellow relegation contenders Newcastle (another one where I disagree with the bookies – though not enough to be worth betting on). Bath are expected to pull off an away win against Wasps (I’ll have to stop referring to them as London Wasps in the model!).
Bets
Leinster look pretty undervalued at 1.25 away to Zebre – they may be misfiring at the start of the season, but the return of some big names and the desire to atone for last week’s upset makes me think they’ll go to Italy in fine form and are worth backing to the tune of £3. As with last week, I feel I should bet with my model where it disagrees with the bookies, so another pound on Treviso to beat the men of the west. The bets are rounded off with a pound each on Ulster and Bath, where there seems to be similar levels of value available.