Ho hum. Another week of 9/12 correct predictions, but 2 of my 4 bets didn’t come off. In terms of the results themselves, Connacht pulled off an important win in Treviso, Ulster showed why they’re still contenders by mauling Glasgow at home and Leinster had a scrappy if ultimately comprehensive away victory over Zebre. In the Premiership, Bath decided the right time to crumple after an impressive start was when I had money on them, while London Welsh handsomely lost by far their most winnable game of the season. What chance another 16 straight losses seeing them back to the Championship?
The model now predicts the Pro 12 will look something like this by the end of the season:
| 1 | Leinster | 72 |
| 2 | Ospreys | 72 |
| 3 | Ulster | 71 |
| 4 | Glasgow | 70 |
| 5 | Munster | 68 |
| 6 | Scarlets | 54 |
| 7 | Connacht | 46 |
| 8 | Cardiff Blues | 45 |
| 9 | Edinburgh | 40 |
| 10 | Dragons | 34 |
| 11 | Benetton Treviso | 26 |
| 12 | Zebre | 24 |
Pro 12 placings
The opening run of games has made the table extremely competitive, with any of Leinster, Ospreys and Ulster seen as equally likely to finish top of the heap, with Munster and Glasgow a little off the pace but still well in contention. Interestingly, at the other end of the spectrum, it looks to be much closer between Treviso and Zebre as to who will be playing European rugby next year, following a string of strong performances by the latter.
| 1 | Saracens | 78 |
| 2 | Northampton Saints | 75 |
| 3 | Bath Rugby | 64 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers | 63 |
| 5 | Harlequins | 59 |
| 6 | Exeter Chiefs | 58 |
| 7 | Gloucester Rugby | 53 |
| 8 | Wasps | 52 |
| 9 | London Irish | 49 |
| 10 | Sale Sharks | 42 |
| 11 | Newcastle Falcons | 30 |
| 12 | London Welsh | 13 |
Premiership placings
Things also continue to tighten up in the Premiership, where Sarries are down to 60% to top the league as Northampton continue to put in some impressive results. London Welsh’s truly terrible form meanwhile means that the model expects them to come last with 98% certainty!
This week of course it’s the start of the ICBINTHCSBH (I Can’t Believe It’s Not The Heineken Cup, Sponsored By Heineken). As I’ve had a lot less French data in the past I think these predictions will be a lot dicier than the league ones, but I am still going to have a crack at firing them out for interest.