Apologies for no updates on final league results prediction recently – I’m having one or two gremlins in the code, but hoping to find some time to fix them shortly.
Back to full service with both the leagues this week as the November Internationals draw to a close. Interestingly, these weeks provide a particular challenge to the predictive model as some teams are shorn of their best players, and more account has to be taken of the quality of a team’s second string. So far, the model has done pretty well, with 9 correct calls out of 12 during the window, but this weekend will prove an important test.
Home Win |
Draw |
Away Win |
||
| Edinburgh | 63% | 4% | 33% | Cardiff Blues |
| Dragons | 23% | 3% | 73% | Munster |
| Connacht | 93% | 2% | 5% | Zebre |
| Scarlets | 54% | 5% | 42% | Glasgow |
| Ulster | 70% | 4% | 26% | Ospreys |
| Benetton Treviso | 5% | 2% | 93% | Leinster |
In the Pro 12, home victories are predicted for Edinburgh, Connacht, Ulster and Scarlets. On an ordinary day, Ospreys might be more heavily favoured to take a scalp, but in a week when they are effectively down to their second string and Ulster play almost a full team, the home side are much more fancied to take down the league leaders. Similarly, Glasgow pay a price for their recent success in having to feed in to the national team, leaving them much weakened for their trip to Parc y Scarlets. Munster and Leinster are expected to round off the weekend’s provincial rugby with victories over Dragons and Treviso.
Home Win |
Draw |
Away Win |
||
| Harlequins | 81% | 3% | 16% | Sale Sharks |
| Newcastle Falcons | 36% | 7% | 57% | Gloucester Rugby |
| Exeter Chiefs | 78% | 1% | 21% | Wasps |
| London Irish | 43% | 3% | 54% | Bath Rugby |
| Saracens | 55% | 2% | 43% | Northampton Saints |
| London Welsh | 14% | 2% | 84% | Leicester Tigers |
Some close battles expected in the Premiership, with title contenders Saracens expected to edge out Northampton Saints with home advantage, Bath predicted to restore their early season form against London Irish, and Gloucester having just enough to defeat Newcastle Falcons away from home. More hefty successes are predicted for Leicester against a hapless London Welsh side who have just conceded another seventy pointer, Exeter Chiefs against Wasps, and Harlequins against Sale.
In terms of the bookies, there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of value available this weekend, with just Leinster and Connacht being given better odds by the Crystal Egg than the bookies.